The ongoing war in Ukraine reminded me of a great marketing lesson from World War II.

During World War II, the Navy realized it was losing a lot of aircraft and could better armor its planes to increase their survival. 

After analyzing where its planes had suffered the most damage, it determined that it needed to reinforce the planes’ wingtips, central body, and elevators. 

But a statistician named Abraham Wald argued otherwise. 

He thought that the Navy should reinforce the armor of the planes’ nose, engines, and mid-body.

But why would he suggest that, when the planes were taking more damage to the wingtips, central body, and elevators? 

That’s because in reality, they weren’t!

The planes getting shot in the nose area, engines, and mid-body were being destroyed from the damage, and weren’t even making it back to be analyzed.

The Navy thought it had discovered where its planes were suffering the most damage. 

Instead, it had discovered where its planes could take damage without being destroyed.

Most marketing is aimed at quickly scaling what’s working.

But the best marketers spend time understanding what causes their marketing plans to crash, and focus on reinforcing those areas so their marketing efforts can truly soar.